Scoring the New Hampshire Primary

(Image Credit: CNN.Com)

The New Hampshire Primary is now in the books and, as is normally the case, it shook up the Presidential race heading into Nevada and South Carolina. Let's take a look at what these results mean for the candidates.

DEMOCRATS

1. Bernie Sanders 60.4- (Win) A (h)uge day for Bernie. Sure he was expected to win New Hampshire, but he trounced Hillary by over 20 percent. After an impressive showing in Iowa and this convincing victory in New Hampshire, Bernie has all the momentum. He's going to need it. The South will likely be far friendlier to Hillary as Bernie has yet to attract support from minority voters. That being said if he can put forward a strong showing in Nevada he has a chance to run the table.

2. Hillary Clinton 38%- (Loss) Hillary wasn't going to win New Hampshire, that was a foregone conclusion, but she did need a stronger showing than this. If Hillary could have stayed within single digits then there may have been some positives, but she was absolutely annihilated. Fortunately for her the next few states should be a bit easier for her to win, something she needs to start doing and soon. She still appears to be the favorite for the Democratic party and she has plenty of money for her campaign, but if she's not careful she may get Bernt.

REPUBLICANS

1. Donald Trump 35.3%- (Win) Trump won because he finally won. Trump's campaign can once again play up the win everything rhetoric. Polling at an impressive 35% of the vote, Trump destroyed the rest of the Republican field and showed that Ted Cruz isn't a legitimate threat to steal his supporters. While we could have predicted a Trump win before the polls even opened this gives the outsider a lot of momentum heading towards the South.

2. John Kasich 15.8% - (Win) The only man who may be more excited than Trump this morning is Ohio governor John Kasich who seemingly came out of nowhere to convincingly snag second place in New Hampshire with nearly 16% of the vote. Despite this victory, Kasich still has a lot of work to do. He did well in New Hampshire by shaking hands and kissing babies, a tactic that won't be sustainable as the primaries grow more numerous over the coming weeks. Kasich needs to establish an organizational presence in a number of states very quickly or her risks being swept under the rug by the well funded campaigns of Trump, Cruz, Bush and Rubio. If he can manage to accomplish this he has a legitimate chance to become the still elusive establishment candidate.

3. Ted Cruz 11.7%- (Neutral) Ted Cruz's aspirations to "be in a tit teen film" and rule the world are still well and alive but they certainly weren't bolstered by a third place finish in New Hampshire. Cruz's New Hampshire finish is likely what we can expect from the young senator in any state outside of the Bible Belt. Basically no one except Cruz supporters like Cruz which more or less means that his ceiling in any primary will be about 10% of the vote.

4. Jeb Bush 11%- (Win) At this point Bush is beginning to look a bit like Rocky. He keeps getting punched in the mouth by Apollo Creed but he somehow manages to keep getting up. While 4th place isn't overly impressive it does keep his campaign alive and the Super PAC's backing Bush have the funds to keep him around for a while. If Bush can survive for the long haul there's a good chance he can snag the title of establishment candidate as attrition takes its tole on Kasich, and Rubio as it just did with Chris Christie. Speaking of Rubio, Bush probably thoroughly enjoyed beating his former apprentice.

5. Marco Rubio 10.6%- (Loss) What a week for Marco Rubio. He was the golden boy of Iowa and seemed to have emerged from the pack to become the establishment candidate, but after a very poor showing in Saturday's debate he has lost any momentum that he may have had. The Rubio Robot is hilarious and likely doesn't bode well for Rubio who has been on the defensive ever since. If there was a loser in this Primary it most certainly was Marco Rubio.

6. Chris Christie 7.4%- (Loss) Poor Chris Christie. He just hasn't been able to stand out in a field where he's not the most brash or outspoken. Unfortunately New Hampshire proved too much for Christie who has decided to end his presidential bid. That said he did get the consolation prize of kneecaping Marco Rubio. The question now is does he throw his support behind another candidate?

7. Carly Fiorina 4.1%- (Loss) Now it's just getting sad. Fiorina has been relegated to the second tier of this field for months and isn't making any progress. I admire her grit and perseverance but "saving" a company by losing 30,000 jobs doesn't really fly.

8. Ben Carson 2.3%-

(Photo Credit NBC Tumblr)

I think this more or less sums it up.

New Hampshire GOP Primary Predictions

Polls should have closed at most NH locations about 30 minutes ago but it looks like there are still long lines of hopeful voters. Anyone in line at 7 will be able to cast there ballots. Here are my predictions for what seems like could be a long night.

5. Chris Christie: Attacking Marco Rubio did less to help his cause than he expected. That said he still has the name recognition and support to continue into South Carolina.

4. Ted Cruz: Cruz spent less time in NH than Iowa. Also the differences between a caucus and a primary have the most effect on him. With most independent voters choosing to vote for a Republican (according to exit polls) the libertarian and moderate voting contingent will hurt his totals.

3. Marco Rubio: After what his team considered a "victorious" 3rd place finish in Iowa it did feel like Marco had some momentum going into New Hampshire. However while I don't think Chris Christie's critique will help his own numbers they will have an effect on Marco. We will see if his team can spin another 3rd place finish into a positive.

2. John Kasich: Admittedly this is more of a passion pick than one I can support with data. John is just a good dude and as crazy as it sounds his midnight momentum in Dixie Notch could snowball into a surprise 2nd tonight.

1. Jeb Bush Donald Trump: Donald has led start to finish in NH. Only thing one would think is in question is the margin. But the fact that Donald Trump is leader in the club house for the GOP nomination right now makes me question everything about everything. 

Any republican not in the top 5 tonight needs to graciously step aside. Something tells me Jeb will hang around in this election longer than a hanging chad in Florida. A Florida where he happened to be the Governor when his brother "won" the White House in 2000. Aside from Jeb I would expect the others to drop out in the next week.

This Day in History

Today we can almost physically hear the mutterings and rumblings of an invigorated god of war. You can see it, feel it, and hear it all the way from the Indochina hills, from the shores of Formosa, right over into the very heart of Europe itself.- Joseph McCarthy

The speech was short, just a few minutes long, and yet it would lead to one of the darkest chapters in American history. When Wisconsin senator Joseph McCarthy took the stage in Wheeling, West Virginia he was merely perpetuating the brand of overly nationalistic chest beating that had swept him into the Senate four years before. This time McCarthy took things one step further, claiming he had the names of Communist sympathizers working in the State Department.

Initially his speech yielded few results. A Senate subcommittee investigated the matter and found no evidence to support McCarthy's claims, yet the senator would not be deterred and his anti-Communist rhetoric led to vast public support. Three years later McCarthy was put in charge of the Committee on Government Operations and quickly set about reinvigorating his witch hunt. The Red Scare had begun. Over the course of the next year McCarthy's committee would cause thousands of government employees to lose their jobs despite never providing evidence of their Communist affiliations. Locally, McCarthy's rhetoric sowed seeds of doubt that blossomed into allegations of Communist sympathies against neighbors and friends.

While McCarthy would finally be censured by the Senate in December of 1954, the damage of his hatred and fear mongering could not be undone. Indeed the legacies of McCarthy's sensationalist rhetoric remain well and alive today.

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have rocketed into political prominence by hitching their wagons to xenophobic rhetoric against Muslims and immigrants. On the opposite side of the political spectrum Bernie Sanders looks poised to win the New Hampshire primary by reveling in the fervor directed towards the "1%". Ask someone what these candidates actually stand for and you're greeted with a blank stare and a generic phrase which invariably translates into "recapturing some imagined past where America was the best at everything."

Policies don't matter nearly as much as passion and fortunately for the contemporary voter we have passion, and enemies to direct that passion against, in spades.

Muslims, Communists, Wall Street insiders, Immigrants, Socialists, Republicans, Democrats. Americans continue to fall victim to these faceless specters that haunt our collective nightmares. We may not be able to agree on taxation, military strategy or whether climate change is real, but we stand unified in our belief that America can once again "hear the mutterings and rumblings of an invigorated God of War." The only question is who are the Communists now?

With this in mind it's essential that we stand on guard against the excesses of the politics of passion. It's easy to blame Islam, or Capitalism or Democrats or Republicans for the numerous problems assaulting America, but doing so accomplished nothing. Instead it results in close mindedness and an immediate rejection of the other side's policies. A result which merely perpetuates and multiplies our societal problems.

If we can learn to resist the allures of hostile rhetoric and instead focus on our problems rather than on the faceless groups that have allegedly caused them then maybe, just maybe, we can begin to make some progress.