Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Scoring the New Hampshire Primary


(Image Credit: CNN.Com)

The New Hampshire Primary is now in the books and, as is normally the case, it shook up the Presidential race heading into Nevada and South Carolina. Let's take a look at what these results mean for the candidates.

DEMOCRATS

1. Bernie Sanders 60.4- (Win) A (h)uge day for Bernie. Sure he was expected to win New Hampshire, but he trounced Hillary by over 20 percent. After an impressive showing in Iowa and this convincing victory in New Hampshire, Bernie has all the momentum. He's going to need it. The South will likely be far friendlier to Hillary as Bernie has yet to attract support from minority voters. That being said if he can put forward a strong showing in Nevada he has a chance to run the table.

2. Hillary Clinton 38%- (Loss) Hillary wasn't going to win New Hampshire, that was a foregone conclusion, but she did need a stronger showing than this. If Hillary could have stayed within single digits then there may have been some positives, but she was absolutely annihilated. Fortunately for her the next few states should be a bit easier for her to win, something she needs to start doing and soon. She still appears to be the favorite for the Democratic party and she has plenty of money for her campaign, but if she's not careful she may get Bernt.

REPUBLICANS

1. Donald Trump 35.3%- (Win) Trump won because he finally won. Trump's campaign can once again play up the win everything rhetoric. Polling at an impressive 35% of the vote, Trump destroyed the rest of the Republican field and showed that Ted Cruz isn't a legitimate threat to steal his supporters. While we could have predicted a Trump win before the polls even opened this gives the outsider a lot of momentum heading towards the South.

2. John Kasich 15.8% - (Win) The only man who may be more excited than Trump this morning is Ohio governor John Kasich who seemingly came out of nowhere to convincingly snag second place in New Hampshire with nearly 16% of the vote. Despite this victory, Kasich still has a lot of work to do. He did well in New Hampshire by shaking hands and kissing babies, a tactic that won't be sustainable as the primaries grow more numerous over the coming weeks. Kasich needs to establish an organizational presence in a number of states very quickly or her risks being swept under the rug by the well funded campaigns of Trump, Cruz, Bush and Rubio. If he can manage to accomplish this he has a legitimate chance to become the still elusive establishment candidate.

3. Ted Cruz 11.7%- (Neutral) Ted Cruz's aspirations to "be in a tit teen film" and rule the world are still well and alive but they certainly weren't bolstered by a third place finish in New Hampshire. Cruz's New Hampshire finish is likely what we can expect from the young senator in any state outside of the Bible Belt. Basically no one except Cruz supporters like Cruz which more or less means that his ceiling in any primary will be about 10% of the vote.

4. Jeb Bush 11%- (Win) At this point Bush is beginning to look a bit like Rocky. He keeps getting punched in the mouth by Apollo Creed but he somehow manages to keep getting up. While 4th place isn't overly impressive it does keep his campaign alive and the Super PAC's backing Bush have the funds to keep him around for a while. If Bush can survive for the long haul there's a good chance he can snag the title of establishment candidate as attrition takes its tole on Kasich, and Rubio as it just did with Chris Christie. Speaking of Rubio, Bush probably thoroughly enjoyed beating his former apprentice.

5. Marco Rubio 10.6%- (Loss) What a week for Marco Rubio. He was the golden boy of Iowa and seemed to have emerged from the pack to become the establishment candidate, but after a very poor showing in Saturday's debate he has lost any momentum that he may have had. The Rubio Robot is hilarious and likely doesn't bode well for Rubio who has been on the defensive ever since. If there was a loser in this Primary it most certainly was Marco Rubio.

6. Chris Christie 7.4%- (Loss) Poor Chris Christie. He just hasn't been able to stand out in a field where he's not the most brash or outspoken. Unfortunately New Hampshire proved too much for Christie who has decided to end his presidential bid. That said he did get the consolation prize of kneecaping Marco Rubio. The question now is does he throw his support behind another candidate?

7. Carly Fiorina 4.1%- (Loss) Now it's just getting sad. Fiorina has been relegated to the second tier of this field for months and isn't making any progress. I admire her grit and perseverance but "saving" a company by losing 30,000 jobs doesn't really fly.

8. Ben Carson 2.3%-
(Photo Credit NBC Tumblr)
I think this more or less sums it up.



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